Saturday, February 27, 2010

DOW JONES: The bear case

This rising wedge is something that is worrying me. The 200 daily exponential moving average is the key support (resistance in May 2009) and is the key point in which I definitely will wear the bear suit. Meanwhile, a trading range between 10.600 and 9.840. In addition, the US dollar in an uptrend is something that give power to the bears.

Sunday, February 21, 2010

S & P 500: 1222 possible?

This is one of the "road-maps" that I am following. It is possible?. Looking the previous posts, I think is something to be aware. I am not going short. The uptrend looks steady.

I think we can not go against the trend despite the apparent fallacy of the bull market.

I have been reading and listening a lot of reasons for the market to crash since Abril 2009. But the market does not listen to them. Then, I think them should listen to the market.

The fiscal tightening of China could be interpreted like something positive for the market, because it means that the economy is growing more than expected (!!!)

The systemic risk and the possibility of radical and political changes is something that were present in 2009 (and the market went UP UP UP).

Then, from the fundamentals, I think there is room for growth.

Saturday, February 20, 2010

DAX in US Dollar

Notice the down trend-line (white line) and the candlestick pattern (short term reversal, yellow circle). In addition, the index is below its 21 EMA (white line) for the first time since March 2009. 

S & P 500 in euro: the soft bearish side

Some people ask me why to look the S & P in euro. I think looking S&P in euro you can eliminate the effect in the charts caused by the depreciation/appreciation of the currency. I am from Argentina, and when Argentina depreciated its currency (the 'peso") in 2002, the financial markets went up because of the depreciation effect. Then, in USA, the depreciation/appreciation of the US dollar is something that have a big impact in the SP500. Looking the SP500 in euro you change the US dollar fluctuation by the euro fluctuation, and then you have another valid and original view of the index. You can find for example which % of the ups and downs (or broken resistances / supports too) are caused by the currency fluctuation, additional targets, etc.

This chart does not looks bearish, but the target of the inverted head and shoulders have been reached.

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Watchlist: Citigroup, Gold & XOM

These are some securities that I am following. The bull US dollar is something to worry (it is not good going against the US dollar now, buying stocks), but I think that the bull US dollar is a sign of weakness on the euro, rather than weakness in commodities and stocks.

Citigroup: wating for the breakup of the down trendline (with volume)

C daily:

GLD: a good buy could be 107 USD

$GOLD daily:

GLD hourly:

XOM: down trendline broken. Refer to older post in order to look up for other timeframes charts.

XOM hourly:

Saturday, February 13, 2010

S & P 500 in US euros: bullish signs

Notice the bullish divergence in the slow stochastics. In addition, the EMA's are still pointing up and the trendline is intact. I am not bearish. 

Tuesday, February 9, 2010


It is difficult to imagine the market making new lows after this pattern in XOM.... but the trend is your friend. And mine.

Saturday, February 6, 2010

SLV: distribution with Head and shoulders?

Volume: As the Head and Shoulders pattern unfolds, volume plays an important role in confirmation. Volume can be measured as an indicator (OBVChaikin Money Flow) or simply by analyzing volume levels. Ideally, but not always, volume during the advance of the left shoulder should be higher than during the advance of the head. This decrease in volume and the new high of the head, together, serve as a warning sign. The next warning sign comes when volume increases on the decline from the peak of the head. Final confirmation comes when volume further increases during the decline of the right shoulder.

To learn more on this pattern, click here

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