Sunday, September 26, 2010

SPY: elliot wave bear count

In opposition to this bull count, I am following this bear count. May be we are seeing the final stage of the wave 2, and we should have a big drop next week if this EW count is the right scenario. I am following two alternative scenarios. This is the bear:

The big picture. If we use some imagination, don't you think that this chart looks like a big inverted Head & Shoulders pattern, in which the white line is the neckline?

Fibonacci's retracements:

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

GOOG: intraday alert

It has broken the 38.2% fibonacci´s resistance. In addition, accum/dist buy signal and the neck of the inverse Head & Shoulders. 

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

XLV: update

XLV has broken the 38.2% fibonacci´s resistance and the channel in the Accumulation/Distribution indicator. Bullish divergence in the MACD indicator. I recommend the stop loss @ 29.70. Notice the low volume. It could be a bull-trap.

Monday, September 13, 2010


Top 10 Holdings (60.32% Of Total Assets)

Abbott Laboratories ABT 5.44
Amgen Inc. AMGN 4.48
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company Co BMY 3.83
Eli Lilly And Company LLY 3.02
Gilead Sciences, Inc. GILD 2.71
Johnson & Johnson JNJ 14.47
Medtronic Inc. MDT 3.57
Merck & Company, Inc. MRK 9.69
Pfizer, Inc. PFE 10.22
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated UNH 2.89

Source: yahoo

Saturday, September 4, 2010

S&P500 in EURO

If this hypothesis is right, we will have a rally on the S&P.


This EW count is in line with the counts in the other indexes. 

TLT is showing some keys

In the big picture, TLT looks like it is developing wave 4, until 96.72 (we know what this means for the S & P the US treasury bonds downtrending, at least in the short term). This is supported also by the reversal pattern (hammer followed by a red candlestick). The target is 96.72. In addition, the last news are showing a change in the mood of the market (jobs report, FED speech, etc.). We can add to this, the behavior of the VIX during the last week (weak and without a clear trend in the weekly chart). I am thinking on possible objectives for wave 5. Still I do not know the target of that wave. 

TLT daily chart:

Thursday, September 2, 2010

IYZ, in the edge

IYZ Ishares (telecom services) has outperformed the SP500 in the last 2 months. If it breaks 21 consistently, 23.5 is the next step.

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Updating my EW count on the S & P 500

I think we had a complex correction pattern: a triple sideway pattern. I am checking proportions, but the basic rules are accomplished. If it breaks 1010, this count is ruled out.

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