Sunday, January 31, 2010

GDP chart analysis

Let's take a look at the evolution of the GDP. In these charts we show the % change from preceding period in Real Gross Domestic Product, seasonally adjusted at annual rates. There are some interesting things to notice,like the "Services" component, in which the principal trend starts falling in the 2nd quarter of 2007 and then recovers in the 4th quarter of 2008 (coinciding with the market trend at that time)

GDP: Personal Consumption expenditures:

Gross private domestic investments:



Government expenditures:

For additional information: click here

Monday, January 25, 2010

This week Watchlist

The past week we saw a big down movement in the major world indexes. The Obama's proposal to reform the banks "to big to fail" and the announcement of China's government to put limits on the activities of the banks had been the "reasons" that the media use to justify these movements.

I am bearish in the SP500 (short term), so if I buy any of this stocks (not the UUP) I will use tighten stops loss.

For this week, I have these in my watchlist. Notice that I am using the 9, 22 and 35 EMA's to follow trend.

UUP: the EMA's had confirmed the uptrend. Now I am waiting for an entry point.





Thursday, January 21, 2010

DOW JONES, S & P 500, DOW TRANSPORTS & other key financial indexes trend lines & fibonacci's

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL (weekly chart) -  Key trend line:

SPY (S & P 500) (weekly chart) -  Key trend line:

NASDAQ COMPOSITE (monthly chart) -  Key trend line:

DOW JONES TRANSPORTS (weekly chart) -  Key trend line:

DOW JONES US FINANCIAL INDEX (weekly chart) -  Key trend lines:

IWM iShares Russel 2000 ETF (weekly chart) -  Key trend lines:

IYR - DOW JONES REAL STATE iShares ETF (weekly chart) -  Key trend lines:


To learn more on trendlines:

Stock charts trendlines (school)

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

GOLD in Euro

In this chart I want to notice something estrange that happen between 2008 & 2010 regarding gold.
If we measure gold in euro, and then compare it against US dollar, we find that both were good investments...but... I used to think that gold and US dolar move in opposites directions...

CRB index & crude oil measured in euros

This is the CRB index measured in euros. Look at the uptrending channel and relate this with the previous post. Conclusions?. If we are bullish in the US dollar, (and then the euro is downtrending), CRB should go down in the near future (more than the euro). The same could be concluded on the crude oil (second chart).... Time will tell....



UUP - Elliot wave count

I am following this elliot wave pattern. I think the US dollar is bullish since the last month, if we use the EMA'a (9, 22 & 50) as a guide.
This is in line with the CRB index measured in euros, which I will explain in the next post.

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