Let's take a look at the evolution of the GDP. In these charts we show the % change from preceding period in Real Gross Domestic Product, seasonally adjusted at annual rates. There are some interesting things to notice,like the "Services" component, in which the principal trend starts falling in the 2nd quarter of 2007 and then recovers in the 4th quarter of 2008 (coinciding with the market trend at that time)
The past week we saw a big down movement in the major world indexes. The Obama's proposal to reform the banks "to big to fail" and the announcement of China's government to put limits on the activities of the banks had been the "reasons" that the media use to justify these movements.
I am bearish in the SP500 (short term), so if I buy any of this stocks (not the UUP) I will use tighten stops loss.
For this week, I have these in my watchlist. Notice that I am using the 9, 22 and 35 EMA's to follow trend.
UUP: the EMA's had confirmed the uptrend. Now I am waiting for an entry point.
In this chart I want to notice something estrange that happen between 2008 & 2010 regarding gold. If we measure gold in euro, and then compare it against US dollar, we find that both were good investments...but... I used to think that gold and US dolar move in opposites directions...
This is the CRB index measured in euros. Look at the uptrending channel and relate this with the previous post. Conclusions?. If we are bullish in the US dollar, (and then the euro is downtrending), CRB should go down in the near future (more than the euro). The same could be concluded on the crude oil (second chart).... Time will tell....
I am following this elliot wave pattern. I think the US dollar is bullish since the last month, if we use the EMA'a (9, 22 & 50) as a guide. This is in line with the CRB index measured in euros, which I will explain in the next post.