XOM vs PBR, and the US Dollar Index

In this chart we can see the relationship between XOM and PBR. Take a look at the black line (the US dollar index) and the red line (XOM/PBR). We can see how the two lines have a close correlation. In my opinion, this relationship could be very useful to decide in which stock you should be invested. I think that (may be) the US dollar index can anticipate this relationship.

Time to sell PBR and buy XOM? May be. The next days I will be following this relationship.

In addition, a long term look at XOM. It is over an important tendency line, which was effective since 2002. Also, pay attention to the red line (9 EMA) and the yellow line (22 EMA), which give a buy signal in October 2009 and it is still valid (in the weekly chart).

Short term look:

AT & T

On T and VZ, the dividends and the fact that they have lagged the market during the recovery are the reasons to look at them. Telecommunications may come back into vogue and we would be rewarded.In addittion, they are low beta stocks.

If we discount the annual dividends (after taxes) using the 10-years treasury bond yield as the risk-free rate (3.22%) and substract the price of the stock, we have the highest present value of the cash flow of all the 30 companies listed in the DOW JONES.

Some numbers:

EPS 12/2008: $0.41
EPS 03/2009: $0.53
EPS 06/2009: $0.54

Annual dividend: $1.64. Taxes: 35%

Discount cash flow = - Today's price close + Annual dividend *(1-35%)/ (Risk free rate) =
-27.15 + 1.64*(1-0.35)/0.0325 = $5.65

The discount cash flow (using the risk free rate) is  the highest in the Dow Jones.

In addition, the payout ratio is very high. We can doubt on the sustainability of the dividends in the near future, but the EPS and sales are stable. However, 100% of the revenues come from the US, which increase the volatility of them.

Some charts:

REVENUE, GROSS PROFIT AND GROSS MARGIN:

Explore more T Data on Wikinvest

Interest Coverage:

Explore more T Data on Wikinvest


Technical's charts:

Daily charts:

 

Weekly charts:

Some US Indexes and key patterns

Previous related posts:
Real State Index and Financials 


Dow Jones Industrial

S & P 400 / Mid Cap Index

Some long term charts of this index. Next resistance: 50% fibonacci retracement.

 

 

OIL vs GAS

Following a suggestion of a good friend, here we can see the OIL / NATURAL GAS ratio.
It interesting to notice the bearish divergences in this ratio (full stochastics), and therefore, we can expect a possible rebound in the index. This mean that, in the near future, the probability of Natural Gas outperforming OIL is very high.
In addition, I suggest to look the long term situation of the Natural gas (here), which is struggling with a support @ USD 2.71.
Time for a reversal in Natural Gas? A big drop coming in Oil?. As it always happen, time will tell.