Friday, April 23, 2010

More on the euro: following the Greece market?

The Greece market has broken critical supports. The euro is following the same pattern. Technically, we should see new lows in the euro. The up-trending channel is at risk. I am thinking in 1.25 the first target if it breaks 1.3222. In addition, take a look at the relationship between the Euro, the 10 year treasury bond yield, the Greece market and the S & P 500.  The treasury bonds keep their soft down trend while the Greece debt is going down. The fly to quality is absent, the question is: how long?. The S & P is almost reaching  its target at 1,228 points. I am wondering which could be the effect in the markets if a debt crisis begin in Europe.  

ATG daily chart: notice the positive divergence in the MACD. May be we could see a double bottom. 1.790 points is the critical pivot point. 

ATG weekly chart:

Relationships between the different markets: notice how during the second semester of 2009 the negative correlation between the TNX (10-year treasury note index) and the ATG. In addition, the euro has become irrelevant with respect the SPX. It seems that there is no correlation between them.

Euro/Usd monthly: important support.

Euro/Usd weekly:

TNX daily chart:

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