BA: wave 5 to 107?

SPY: updating elliot wave count

Updating my EW count from September 1st, this could be the road-map. If the market is following this pattern, we are now in the wave 5, wich should take us to 140 SPY. But without the help of the financial sector (the XLF, and specially the big banks, are underperforming the indexes) the risk is high.

DIS: Walt Disney Co

Some keys of Disney (source: yahoo)

PBR:

A break above 37 is a buy.

SPY: elliot wave bear count

In opposition to this bull count, I am following this bear count. May be we are seeing the final stage of the wave 2, and we should have a big drop next week if this EW count is the right scenario. I am following two alternative scenarios. This is the bear:

The big picture. If we use some imagination, don't you think that this chart looks like a big inverted Head & Shoulders pattern, in which the white line is the neckline?

Fibonacci's retracements:

XLV: update

XLV has broken the 38.2% fibonacci´s resistance and the channel in the Accumulation/Distribution indicator. Bullish divergence in the MACD indicator. I recommend the stop loss @ 29.70. Notice the low volume. It could be a bull-trap.

S&P500 in EURO

If this hypothesis is right, we will have a rally on the S&P.

FTSE in USD

This EW count is in line with the counts in the other indexes. 

TLT is showing some keys

In the big picture, TLT looks like it is developing wave 4, until 96.72 (we know what this means for the S & P the US treasury bonds downtrending, at least in the short term). This is supported also by the reversal pattern (hammer followed by a red candlestick). The target is 96.72. In addition, the last news are showing a change in the mood of the market (jobs report, FED speech, etc.). We can add to this, the behavior of the VIX during the last week (weak and without a clear trend in the weekly chart). I am thinking on possible objectives for wave 5. Still I do not know the target of that wave. 

TLT daily chart:

Updating my EW count on the S & P 500

I think we had a complex correction pattern: a triple sideway pattern. I am checking proportions, but the basic rules are accomplished. If it breaks 1010, this count is ruled out.

Updating some indexes

Some possibles count for the wave 4:

This are some possible long term EW counts for the most important indexes.

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL:

LONDON FINANCIAL TIMES STOCK EXCHANGE:

DOW JONES TRANSPORTS:

DOW JONES US FINANCIAL INDEX:

Road map

This is the pattern that I am following. Until it is broken, I will be waiting for a definition.

Analysts following this pattern: Charlie and analista tecnico.

S & P 500: 1222 possible?

This is one of the "road-maps" that I am following. It is possible?. Looking the previous posts, I think is something to be aware. I am not going short. The uptrend looks steady.


I think we can not go against the trend despite the apparent fallacy of the bull market.

I have been reading and listening a lot of reasons for the market to crash since Abril 2009. But the market does not listen to them. Then, I think them should listen to the market.

The fiscal tightening of China could be interpreted like something positive for the market, because it means that the economy is growing more than expected (!!!)

The systemic risk and the possibility of radical and political changes is something that were present in 2009 (and the market went UP UP UP).

Then, from the fundamentals, I think there is room for growth.

Some US Indexes and key patterns

Previous related posts:
Real State Index and Financials 


Dow Jones Industrial