If we measure gold in euro, and then compare it against US dollar, we find that both were good investments...but... I used to think that gold and US dolar move in opposites directions...
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
GOLD in Euro
In this chart I want to notice something estrange that happen between 2008 & 2010 regarding gold.
If we measure gold in euro, and then compare it against US dollar, we find that both were good investments...but... I used to think that gold and US dolar move in opposites directions...
If we measure gold in euro, and then compare it against US dollar, we find that both were good investments...but... I used to think that gold and US dolar move in opposites directions...
CRB index & crude oil measured in euros
This is the CRB index measured in euros. Look at the uptrending channel and relate this with the previous post. Conclusions?. If we are bullish in the US dollar, (and then the euro is downtrending), CRB should go down in the near future (more than the euro). The same could be concluded on the crude oil (second chart).... Time will tell....
$CRB:$XEU (stockcharts.com)
$WTIC:$XEU (stockcharts.com):
$CRB:$XEU (stockcharts.com)
$WTIC:$XEU (stockcharts.com):
UUP - Elliot wave count
I am following this elliot wave pattern. I think the US dollar is bullish since the last month, if we use the EMA'a (9, 22 & 50) as a guide.
This is in line with the CRB index measured in euros, which I will explain in the next post.
This is in line with the CRB index measured in euros, which I will explain in the next post.
Saturday, December 19, 2009
XOM vs PBR, and the US Dollar Index
In this chart we can see the relationship between XOM and PBR. Take a look at the black line (the US dollar index) and the red line (XOM/PBR). We can see how the two lines have a close correlation. In my opinion, this relationship could be very useful to decide in which stock you should be invested. I think that (may be) the US dollar index can anticipate this relationship.
Time to sell PBR and buy XOM? May be. The next days I will be following this relationship.
In addition, a long term look at XOM. It is over an important tendency line, which was effective since 2002. Also, pay attention to the red line (9 EMA) and the yellow line (22 EMA), which give a buy signal in October 2009 and it is still valid (in the weekly chart).
Short term look:
Time to sell PBR and buy XOM? May be. The next days I will be following this relationship.
In addition, a long term look at XOM. It is over an important tendency line, which was effective since 2002. Also, pay attention to the red line (9 EMA) and the yellow line (22 EMA), which give a buy signal in October 2009 and it is still valid (in the weekly chart).
Short term look:
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
AT & T
On T and VZ, the dividends and the fact that they have lagged the market during the recovery are the reasons to look at them. Telecommunications may come back into vogue and we would be rewarded.In addittion, they are low beta stocks.
If we discount the annual dividends (after taxes) using the 10-years treasury bond yield as the risk-free rate (3.22%) and substract the price of the stock, we have the highest present value of the cash flow of all the 30 companies listed in the DOW JONES.
Some numbers:
EPS 12/2008: $0.41
EPS 03/2009: $0.53
EPS 06/2009: $0.54
Annual dividend: $1.64. Taxes: 35%
Discount cash flow = - Today's price close + Annual dividend *(1-35%)/ (Risk free rate) =
-27.15 + 1.64*(1-0.35)/0.0325 = $5.65
The discount cash flow (using the risk free rate) is the highest in the Dow Jones.
In addition, the payout ratio is very high. We can doubt on the sustainability of the dividends in the near future, but the EPS and sales are stable. However, 100% of the revenues come from the US, which increase the volatility of them.
Some charts:
REVENUE, GROSS PROFIT AND GROSS MARGIN:
Interest Coverage:
If we discount the annual dividends (after taxes) using the 10-years treasury bond yield as the risk-free rate (3.22%) and substract the price of the stock, we have the highest present value of the cash flow of all the 30 companies listed in the DOW JONES.
Some numbers:
EPS 12/2008: $0.41
EPS 03/2009: $0.53
EPS 06/2009: $0.54
Annual dividend: $1.64. Taxes: 35%
Discount cash flow = - Today's price close + Annual dividend *(1-35%)/ (Risk free rate) =
-27.15 + 1.64*(1-0.35)/0.0325 = $5.65
The discount cash flow (using the risk free rate) is the highest in the Dow Jones.
In addition, the payout ratio is very high. We can doubt on the sustainability of the dividends in the near future, but the EPS and sales are stable. However, 100% of the revenues come from the US, which increase the volatility of them.
Some charts:
REVENUE, GROSS PROFIT AND GROSS MARGIN:
Interest Coverage:
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